Chapter 07 / By the numbers
Primary elections by the numbers, 2026
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How competitive were primaries in 2026?
Most 2026 primaries were not competitive: only 22.1 percent of possible primaries were contested.
When most primaries have one candidate and most seats are safe, the voters allowed into the primary hold most of the power. Every figure below names its source.
Who is locked out of primaries
- 66,284,669
- Americans registered in states that will not let them vote in primaries
- 63 million
- registered independent or unaffiliated voters, 28.9 percent of the electorate
- 3,187,610
- New York voters barred from closed primaries, 25.4 percent of the electorate
- 40 million
- Californians in the top-two primary, open to every voter
Source: per our audit.
How competitive 2026 primaries were
| Statistic | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Possible primaries that were contested | 22.1% | per our audit |
| Incumbents facing a contested primary | 25.5% of 5,613 | per our audit |
| Prior three-cycle average for incumbents | 25.6% | per our audit |
| Legislators who lost primaries | 3.4% (174 of 5,111) | per our audit |
| Average loss rate since 2010 | 2.9% | per our audit |
| Legislative seats uncontested by one major party | 32.5% (avg 38.0%) | per our audit |
| Seats with only a Republican | 12.5% (avg 19.4%) | per our audit |
| Seats with only a Democrat | 20.0% (avg 18.6%) | per our audit |
What the numbers mean
With fewer than one in four possible primaries contested and nearly a third of legislative general elections lacking a major-party contest, the primary often is the election. Congress has averaged a 20 percent approval rating alongside a more than 90 percent reelection rate, a gap that ties to the primary problem.
Crossover voting, the main objection to open primaries, is estimated at 3 to 20 percent. Weighed against tens of millions of excluded voters, that is why open primaries rank high in the best primary systems 2026 rankings.
Common questions
- Why do primaries matter so much for independents?
- Primaries matter because they often decide the winner. Over 90 percent of congressional seats are considered safe for one party, so the primary is effectively the final election. Ballotpedia found only 22.1 percent of possible 2026 primaries were contested, so voters locked out of primaries often have no meaningful choice.See this answer in the full FAQ
- How many voters are registered independent?
- About 63 million American voters are registered independent or unaffiliated, 28.9 percent of the electorate. That is nearly as many as all registered Republicans, at 69.6 million. In Alaska, Massachusetts, Colorado, and Rhode Island, independents outnumber either major party.See this answer in the full FAQ
- Can independent voters vote in primaries?
- Independent voters can vote in primaries in most states, but not in the 15 closed-primary states. In open and nonpartisan states they vote freely. In semi-closed and semi-open states they can usually choose a party ballot. 66,284,669 Americans are registered in states that keep them out of primaries.See this answer in the full FAQ
- What is crossover voting and how common is it?
- Crossover voting is when a voter who supports one party votes in another party’s primary. Crossover voting is 3 to 20 percent in open primaries. Parties worry most about strategic raiding, where outsiders back a weaker candidate on purpose. Nonpartisan top-two primaries sidestep the issue because there is no separate party contest to cross into.See this answer in the full FAQ
- Where do the numbers in this guide come from?
- The figures in this guide come from named sources: state voter data and primary guides, Ballotpedia, MultiState, and published primary election explainers. Each number is attributed on the page where it appears. Our methodology page explains how the rankings were formed.See this answer in the full FAQ
Your next step
Start with open primaries. Then explore More Choice Voting.
Getting every voter a primary ballot is the first barrier to clear. The Independent Voter Project runs the national campaign for open primaries for every voter, and our More Choice Voting chapter covers what comes after.